Hayman Advisors: What’s Next?
Both the US and the world economy are headed for a financial winter the likes of which we have never seen before (unless you happen to have been alive in 1929).
Emphasis added by me.
And:
We think we will see 10-12% unemployment, a 4-5% decline in GDP, and the equity markets could drop at least 70% from peak to trough. Remember, the capital structures of most of America's companies have taken on more and more senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred, convertible preferred, trust preferred, and God only knows what else in front of equity. This means the "equity" piece of the cap structure is enormously positively or negatively leveraged to changes in funding costs and enterprise values. A drop of 70% for the S+P is absolutely possible. Remember, all of the loss estimates we have reviewed have really ignored the coming losses in credit card debt, commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, CDS contracts, auto loans, and unsecured personal loans. We are experiencing the global deflationary bust of all time. It will deflate the values of just about all assets. Anything and everything we own will decline precipitously in value.
Emphasis added by me.
I didn't include a link at top because this is a PDF.
Let me tell you right up front: This is the scariest document about the worldwide financial mess I have yet read.
If you don't want to see the facts, if you want to be oblivious to the oncoming disaster, if you cannot face the darkness ahead -- then do not read this.
I am telling you that it takes courage to read this.
My advice: Print this out and read it thoroughly.
This is the direct PDF link (Save As ...)
Previously here:
Chronicles Of Depression 2.0: #231: Pray
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