Thursday, July 31, 2008

Chronicles Of Depression 2.0: #179

Ah, the bullshit is let loose to prance amongst us.

Economy gains traction in spring; shrank year end
Economic growth picked up in the second quarter as tax rebates energized consumers. The rebound followed a treacherous patch where the economy jolted into reverse at the end of 2007.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the April-to-June period. That marked an improvement over the feeble 0.9 percent growth logged in the first quarter of this year and an outright contraction in the economy during the final quarter of last year.

Still, the second-quarter rebound wasn't as robust as economists had hoped; they were forecasting growth to clock in at a 2.4 percent pace. The rebound, while welcome, isn't likely to be seen as a signal that the fragile economy is out of the woods. There are fears that as the bracing tonic of the tax rebates fades, the economy could be in for another rough patch later this year.

Emphasis added by me.

That 1.9 percent is bullshit. These things always get revised months later. Watch it plummet!

GDP actually contracted by 0.2 percent, on an annualized basis, in the last three months of 2007, according to annual revisions released by the government.

Emphasis added by me.

See how the game is played? BushCo brayed we hadn't had any contraction in the economy. The truth comes out in a revision months later!

Here's the original figure they touted:
The fourth-quarter's dip marked the worst showing since the third quarter of 2001, when the economy was last in a recession. The government's previous estimate for the final quarter of last year was in positive territory — but not by much — at an anemic 0.6 percent growth rate.

Emphasis added by me.

Now the inflation bullshit:
An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed all prices galloping ahead at a rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace since the end of last year.

However, when energy and food costs are stripped out, all other — or "core" — prices rose at a pace of 2.1 percent, down from a 2.3 percent rise in the first quarter. Still, the second-quarter's core inflation reading is outside the Fed's comfort zone.

What the hell else needs to be counted, really? Energy comprises our gas, electricity, heating, cooling. Food is what we all absolutely must have. And their figures are bullshit! 4.2 percent a year? What the hell are they averaging that drags it down from the double-digits all of us have been seeing daily for months?

A trio of crises — housing, credit and financial — have badly bruised the economy. In response, employers have cut jobs for six months in a row, bringing total losses this year close to a staggering half-million — 438,000.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of applications for jobless benefits soared to 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week. That was far worse than the decline of 8,000 that economists had been expecting.

Emphasis added by me.

Wait. These anonymous economists expected 8,000 and it was over five times greater? What does that tell you about the people who are supposed to be in charge of things? Does that inspire confidence in their abilities to properly assess a situation and devise realistic solutions?


We're doomed.

No comments: